Trend Indicators
Trend indicators appear on area profile pages, the Murder Count page, the Statistics page, and the Compare page. They show directional movement in crime over time.
How trends are calculated
Each trend indicator compares two equivalent time windows:
- Current window: the most recent 30 days, offset back 4 days
- Previous window: the equivalent 30 days immediately before that
Both windows are shifted back by 4 days to account for reporting lag — crimes take up to 4 days to appear in the system after they occur (P90). This ensures both periods are fully populated before comparison, so you are not comparing a complete historical window against an incomplete recent one.
If the current window has more incidents than the previous window, the trend is up. If fewer, it is down. If within a small margin (±5%), it is stable.
What the indicators mean
| Indicator | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Up arrow (red) | Incidents have increased compared to the prior period |
| Down arrow (green) | Incidents have decreased compared to the prior period |
| Dash (neutral) | Stable — within the ±5% threshold |
On area profile pages
Each area profile shows a 90-day trend indicator for the area’s overall crime rate. A red upward arrow means crime in that area has increased over the past 90 days relative to the 90 days before that.
On the Murder Count page
The Murder Count page shows a year-over-year indicator directly in the hero — comparing the current year’s murder count to the same period in the previous year. It also shows a monthly breakdown chart so you can see which months are above or below the previous year’s pace.
On the Statistics page
The Statistics page shows trend indicators by crime type — so you can see whether Robberies are trending up nationally even if overall crime is down. It also includes a Caribbean benchmark comparison (Trinidad’s rate vs the Caribbean average and world average) and a murder toll breakdown by political party.
Interpreting trends carefully
- A single-month spike may not represent a meaningful trend. Use 90-day trends for more reliable signals.
- Low-volume areas can show large percentage swings from small absolute changes (e.g. going from 1 to 2 incidents = +100%).
- Trends reflect reported crime. An increase in trend may indicate more crime, more reporting, or more media coverage of that area.
See also: Understanding Risk Scores and Data Coverage and Limitations.
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